Small-Area Population Projections - A Key Element in Knowledge Based e-Governance

摘要

Population is an important part of regional and local economy due to the population's role as labour force (tax payers), consumers, and users of public services. Consequently, the size, the age structure and the spatial distribution of population are essential factors in knowledge based e-Governance especially regarding the mid and long term planning of land-use and service facilities. Therefore, population projections are important inputs to decision-making at local and regional level. However, in order to be useful in a spatial decisionmaking context, the projections must be available for a subdivision of the territory to be managed. This requires a detailed and robust population projection model, plus reliable and up-to-date data. The current paper describes a Danish approach to small-area-population projections based on the well-known cohort-component principle supplied with some structural elements, and demonstrate how the results can be used to serve the decision making concerning school planning.