Investment Cycle Empirical Analysis of Sichuan Province

摘要

The research of investment cycle is an issue which is generally concerned about by many economists.Since the reform and opening up,the investment of Sichuan has maintained a good momentum of development,and displays a pronounced cyclical fluctuation.In the research of investment cycle,many economists generally used the H-P Fliter or the residual method to analyze it,and there have been many conclusions.In the research of Sichuan province investment cycle,the paper has selected the later method which is the residual method to analysis the investment cycle of Sichuan Province.Meanwhile,it also analyzes the features of investment cycle and why the investment cycle of Sichuan province formates on the base of actual conditions of Sichuan province.On the basis of these,finally,with Granger causality,a test is made on whether the fluctuation of fixed asset investment leads to economic cycle or not.