The Risk Management Decision Model of the Construction Project Duration and Adaptive Genetic Algorithm

摘要

The scientific technology of decision-making can be used in the choice of construct plan and make sure of the cost, quantity and schedule. But in the process of carry it out, the change of design; the problem of material supply, the variety of natural condition etc are ineluctable. They make the actual plan is not accord with the optimum plan in te case of recreate of some working procedure or indetermination duration of some constructions section. According to the characteristics of the process of the construction project, the risk management decision model of the construction project is presented. Some essential risk factors of the project duration such as activity overlapping, activity iterations, uncertain activity durations and non-consumable resource amount are integrated into the decision model. There are some random variables in the model and the relationship of input and output variables only can be got after the simulation. Considering the characteristics of the model, a simulation optimization method based on adaptive genetic algorithm is proposed. A case study shows that the algorithm is beneficial.