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The Wisdom of the Market: Using Human Factors to Design Prediction Markets for Collective Intelligence

机译:市场的智慧:利用人为因素来设计集体智能预测市场

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There is an ever-growing literature on the power of prediction markets to harness "'the wisdom of the crowd" from large groups of people. However, traditional prediction markets are not designed in a human-centered way, often restricting their own potential. This creates the opportunity to implement a cognitive science perspective on how to enhance the collective intelligence of the participants. Thus, we propose a new model for prediction markets that integrates human factors, cognitive science, game theory and machine learning to maximize collective intelligence. We do this by first identifying the connections between prediction markets and collective intelligence, to then use human factors techniques to analyze our design, culminating in the practical ways with which our design enables artificial intelligence to complement human intelligence.
机译:从大型人群中,有一个不断增长的预测市场力量的力量,以“''”“”“人群的智慧”。然而,传统的预测市场不是以人为中心的方式设计的,通常限制自己的潜力。这产生了实现认知科学的机会,了解如何增强参与者的集体智能。因此,我们提出了一种新的预测市场模型,这些模型集成了人类因素,认知科学,博弈论和机器学习,以最大化集体智能。我们首先通过首先识别预测市场和集体智能之间的连接,然后利用人为的因素来分析我们的设计,以实际的方式开发,我们的设计使人工智能能够补充人类智力。

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