Simulation Modeling of Epidemic Risk in Supermarkets: Investigating the Impact of Social Distancing and Checkout Zone Design

摘要

We build an agent-based model for evaluating the spatial and functional design of supermarket checkout zones and the effectiveness of safety regulations related to distancing that have been introduced after the COVID-19 outbreak. The model is implemented in the NetLogo simulation platform and calibrated to actual point of sale data from one of major European retail chains. It enables realistic modeling of the checkout operations as well as of the airborne diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 particles. We find that opening checkouts in a specific order can reduce epidemic risk, but only under low and moderate traffic conditions. Hence, redesigning supermarket layouts to increase distances between the queues can reduce risk only if the number of open checkouts is sufficient to serve customers during peak hours.