Risk forewarning model offreightperiod based on scenario merging

摘要

Detecting risk factors during freight period and making prevention or emergency measures is very important for reducing the probability of freight delay. In literatures, the operating time of function is considered as the fatal factor which affect freight period. More time the operation occupy, more important the function. But operating time of function can't reflect primary reason which results in freight delay. In our research, we take risk factors affecting freight period into consideration. From the perspective of transit scenario, we systematically analyze risk factors, mine the relationship among risk factors, and realize the dynamic merge of different freight scenario. This method can truly reflect fundamental factors affecting the freight period. So the management of freight period forewarning can be procedural, fine and dynamic.