Research on Ice Disaster Risk of Transmission Line Based on Annual Ice Extremum

摘要

Aiming at the phenomena of transmission line faults caused by ice damage, an annual fault rate model of regional transmission lines is constructed based on the theory of extreme ice cover and metal deformation. The distribution of icing extreme value belongs to the probability analysis of Climatic Extreme value. Pearson III distribution is used to fit the data sample of icing extreme value, and the distribution of icing extreme value is obtained. Combining with the theory of metal deformation, the probability model of line failure under the condition of icing thickness is constructed. The annual distribution of transmission line failure rate is synthetically obtained, and the genetic algorithm is used to analyze the distribution of icing extreme value. Its parameters are estimated. The results show that the distribution of extreme value of icing fitted by Pearson III distribution is close to the reality, the probability of line failure under certain icing thickness can be accurately analyzed by metal deformation theory, and the comprehensive annual distribution of transmission line failure rate can be applied to the prevention of icing damage and bone construction of trunk truss.