Space Shuttle Foam Debris Monte Carlo Risk Analysis

摘要

After the STS-107 Columbia accident, caused by a large piece of Space Shuttle foam debris impacting the reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) wing leading edge (WLE) of the Orbiter, NASA embarked to "determine critical debris sources, transport mechanisms, and resulting impact areas [and] based on the results of this assessment...recommend changes or redesigns that would reduce the debris risk."1 The Aerospace Corporation and NASA developed a Monte Carlo analysis to study the debris impact phenomena in an end-to-end manner. The Aerospace Corporation integrated extensive testing, modeling, and observational data provided by Space Shuttle team members from NASA-JSC, NASA-MSFC, NASA-KSC, NASA-NESC, NASA-Ames, Lockheed Martin, Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Boeing and The Aerospace Corporation into a simulation-based probabilistic risk assessment of ascent foam debris. This analysis predicts the answers to three questions: what can go wrong (debris release), what and how severe are the potential consequences (debris impact and damage), and what are the probabilities of occurrence for those consequences (resultant risk)? 2