Forecasting of Environmental Pressure Indicators as Part of the Monitoring of the Ecological and Socio-Economic Development of the Extracting Region

摘要

One of the components of monitoring of ecological-socio-economic development of the extracting region is forecasting. To assess the ecological-socio-economic development of Orenburg region, which is the extracting region, a system of indicators developed by the authors is used based on the "Pressure - State - Reaction" model. The indicators of the "state" and "reaction" blocks are relatively inert: time is needed in order for sharp changes to occur. Given the specifics of the indicators of the "pressure" block, which can fluctuate sharply due to environmental disasters, forecasting is proposed to be based on adaptive models that can quickly adapt to changing conditions and are quite effective in the short term. The article presents the results of applying the models of exponential smoothing with drift and adaptive Holt models to a number of indicators of environmental pressure in Orenburg region.