Integrated Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Mitigation through Energy Efficiency for Coal-fired Power Industry in China

摘要

The coal-fired power industry contributes most CO2 emissions among social sectors in China. This paper constructs a hybrid CGE model to simulate the effects of CO2 emissions mitigation through energy efficiency for coal-fired power industry in China. Then the electricity generation, energy saving amounts, CO2 emissions amount and CO2 emissions intensity under strict energy efficiency policies from 2002 to 2020 are estimated for China's coal-fired power industry. According to the calculation results, the performance factor of CO2 emissions for coal-fired power industry cannot be effectively reduced to national target through energy efficiency in China by 2020, while CO2 emissions amount will still show increasing trend. Renewable energy and other clean energy sorts should be substituted for coal in China's electricity sector. The development of the coal-fired power technologies targeted at near-zero CO2 emissions such as CCS technology also has become urgent in China.