A new framework of probabilistic production simulation of power systems with wind energy resources

摘要

The fossil energy crisis and environment concerns have brought a dramatic development of renewable energy resources such as wind energy resources and solar energy sources over the past decade. The high uncertainty of renewable energy resources renders the existing probabilistic production simulation approach less applicable. This paper proposes a new framework of probabilistic production simulation which gives better consideration of the variability/intermittency effects of renewable energy, especially the wind energy. This new framework uses Monte Carlo methods to realize the combination of probabilistic production simulation and stochastic process sampling. In this paper, we model the wind speed in a certain wind farm as a stochastic process using a stochastic differential equation which can fit the marginal distribution and the sequential correlation structure of the true wind speed. According to the power characteristic curve of the wind turbine, we could generate the wind power series from the wind speed series.