Impacts of future climate change on Net Primary Productivity of grassland in Inner Mongolia, China

摘要

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of grassland is a key variable of terrestrial ecosystems and is an important parameter for characterizing carbon cycles in grassland ecosystems. In this research, the Inner Mongolia grassland NPP was calculated using theMiami Model and the impact of climate change on grassland NPP was subsequently analyzed under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, B2, and A1B scenarios, which are inferred from Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) climate model system. The results showed that: (1) the NPP associated with these three scenarios had a similar distribution in Inner Mongolia: the grassland NPP increased gradually from the western region, with less than 200 g/m~2/yr, to the southeast region, with more than 800 g/m~2/yr. Precipitation was the main factor determining the grassland NPP; (2) compared with the baseline (1961-1990), there would be an overall increase in grassland NPP during three time periods (2020s: 2011-2040, 2050s: 2041-2070, and 2080s: 2071-2100) under the A2 and B2 scenarios; (3) under the A1B scenario, there will be a decreasing trend at middle-west region during the 2020s and 2050s; while there will be a very significant decrease from the 2050s to 2080s for middle Inner Mongolia; and (4) grassland NPP under the A1B scenario would present the most significant increase among the three scenarios, and would have the least significant increase under the B2 scenario.