Probabilistic-Fuzzy Method of Ship Manoeuvre Safety Assessment in a Restricted Area

摘要

A probabilistic-fuzzy method for determining a navigational safety indicator relating to a ship manoeuvring in a fairway is presented. The notion of fuzzy event probability has been used. Navigational accident threat has been defined as a fuzzy event. On the basis of the probabilistic risk analysis and elements of fuzzy logic the traditional approach takes into account both safety failure and uncertainty associated with the threat estimation. The probability is determined by two different approaches. The calculation results are presented.