THE RESEARCH OF TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION MODEL BASED ON THE SIR EPIDEMIC MODEL

摘要

Nowadays, the progress of science and technology is the key power to push on the development of society and economy. However, the new technology hasn't any influence on economy unless it is widely used and become popular. Hence it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the technology diffusion phenomena. Because the technology diffusion is very similar to the spread of infectious diseases, this paper formulated the SIR model of single technology diffusing in one enterprise cluster, the SIR model of single technology diffusing in several enterprise clusters and the SIR model of several technologies diffusing in one enterprise cluster by applying the classical epidemic model (SIR model). By the way of analyzing to the three kinds of models, the influence of alternative technology and the interrelationship of competitive technologies in technology diffusion are studied. It is concluded that only if the sum of all the technology diffusion rates is greater than the sum of the alternative technology accepting rate and the enterprise bankruptcy rate, the technology diffusion phenomena can be kept, and besides, the proportion of the two kinds of competitive technologies assumes the exponential change along with the ratio of their success rates of technology diffusion.