Vehicle Risk Analysis and En-route Speed Warning Research Based on Traffic Environment

摘要

In this paper, we established a method to assess the risk of traffic environment and proposed a vehicle speed early warning model that is related to the traffic environmental risk index. This risk assessment method of traffic environment takes into account three risk factors: the risk exposure, the probability of accident occurrence and the severity of accident. Simultaneously, two dynamic risk factors of operating speed and real-time speed are also introduced. The vehicle speed warning model is correlated with the Traffic Environment Risk Index. The establishment of Early Warning Vehicle Speed and Vehicle Speed Early Warning System are based on the Evaluation Index of Operating Vehicle Speed and Velocity Gradient. The traffic environment risk assessment method and speed early warning model are validated by using the accident data and the section speed data of Kunshi Expressway, respectively. The Spielman correlation coefficient between the risk grade and the number of road accidents is determined from our experiments to be 0.7109. The average value of speed gradient of early warning vehicle speed is less than that of running vehicle speed gradient. The accident rate of early warning speed is lower than that of running speed in the same section.