Mathematical Model for the Calculation of Dynamic Risk Analysis of Emergencies at Hydraulic Structures

摘要

The paper presents a technique of dynamic risk analysis of the occurrence of technogenic emergencies and hazards at hydraulic structures, which will make it possible to forecast risk indicators distributed over time (by months). The technique involves the use of statistical information and its transformation for use in forecasting dynamically developing risk. The technique allows using it for the analysis of collective and individual risks, as well as for the analysis of technogenic hazards and emergencies arising at hydraulic structures.