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Investigating the Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Economic Performance: Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Analysis

机译:调查财政和货币政策对经济绩效的影响:动态面板阈值回归分析

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For ages, there are controversial debates from the different school of thoughts which focused on the behavior of economic experience incidents. In this paper, we carefully examine and compare the impacts of fiscal policy (government expenditure, current account balance, budget deficit and government debt) versus monetary policy (broad money and real interest rate) on economic growth using dynamic panel threshold regression of Hansen (2000). In particular, the main objectives include (1) to model the threshold effect of budget deficit in stimulating regime dependent switching of variables on economic growth and (2) to compare the impacts of both policies on economic growth between two groups of countries with current account deficit versus current account surplus. The study is based on a panel of two groups of countries for the period of 2005-2014. The results detected a first sample split threshold estimate and found that some of the variables have significance effect on economic growth regardless whether the budget deficit below or upper the threshold level. Comparing both groups of economies; we find one similarity, which both groups of economies show more effective in terms of monetary policy where broad money is able to stimulate higher growth but the fiscal policy through government spending fail to lead to higher GDP growth. Thus, it causes to lower growth in countries with current account deficit. Overall, we can conclude that current account balance has contributed to the large economic growth in countries with current account surplus while government spending has led to significant drop in the economic growth in countries with current account deficit, which indicate the failure or ineffectiveness of the fiscal policy.
机译:对于年龄来说,来自不同学校的争议辩论,这些思想侧重于经济经验事件的行为。在本文中,我们仔细检查和比较了财政政策(政府支出,经常账户余额,预算赤字和政府债务)与货币政策(广泛货币和实际利率)对经济增长的影响,使用汉森的动态面板阈值回归( 2000)。特别是,主要目标包括(1)以模拟预算赤字的阈值效应,以刺激经济增长和(2)对经济增长的变量和(2)的影响,以比较两组经济增长之间的两组国家与经常账户之间的影响赤字与经常账户盈余。该研究基于2005 - 2014年期间的两组国家小组。结果检测到第一个样本分裂阈值估计,发现一些变量对经济增长具有重要性,而不论预算赤字是否低于或上层阈值水平。比较两组经济体;我们发现一种相似性,两组经济体在货币政策方面表现出更有效的,这些政策能够促进更高的增长,但通过政府支出的财政政策未能导致更高的GDP增长。因此,它导致账户赤字的国家的增长降低。总体而言,我们可以得出结论,当前的账户余额为经常账户盈余的国家的大量经济增长促进,而政府支出导致经常账户赤字的经济增长显着下降,这表明财政失败或无效。政策。

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