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Forecasting Mortality Rates of Elderly in Indonesia Using The First Generalized Cairns-Blake-Dowd Model

机译:使用第一个推广的凯恩斯 - 布莱克陶笛模型预测印度尼西亚老年人死亡率

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The insurance companies in Indonesia is always aware of the importance of forecasting future mortality rates. If information about mortality rates for several future periods can be obtained in the present time, then the financial planning and policy in determining the amount of premium are expected to be better and more directed. This paper proposed the First Generalized Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) model to forecast the mortality rates of the Indonesian population. The CBD model contains time series parameters. The first stage is to use the Least Square and Newton-Raphson methods to estimate these parameters. The accuracy of the estimation results is verified by the Mean Squared Error (MSE) value. The second stage is to use Holt's linear trend method to forecast the values of estimated parameters aims to calculate the future mortality rates. The level of forecasting accuracy is verified by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The MSE and MAPE for each age group are less than 10~(-4) and 5%, respectively. The forecasted mortality rates for the next periods are presented in the tabular and graphical form. The trend of the projected mortality rate shows a downward trend for each age group.
机译:印度尼西亚的保险公司始终意识到预测未来死亡率的重要性。如果在本时候可以获得有关未来几期死亡率的情况的信息,那么预计汇总溢价金额的财务规划和政策将更好,更为指导。本文提出了第一广义的凯恩斯 - 布莱克陶笛(CBD)模型,以预测印度尼西亚人口的死亡率。 CBD模型包含时间序列参数。第一阶段是使用最小二乘和牛顿-Raphson方法来估计这些参数。估计结果的准确性由平均平方误差(MSE)值验证。第二阶段是使用Holt的线性趋势方法来预测估计参数的值旨在计算未来的死亡率。预测精度的水平通过平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)值来验证。每个年龄组的MSE和MAPE分别小于10〜(-4)和5%。下一期的预测死亡率以表格和图形形式呈现。预计死亡率的趋势显示了每个年龄组的下降趋势。

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