Application and Analysis of National Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital staff forecast

摘要

Objective: To explore the methods for modeling and predicting the personnel of Chinese medicine hospitals in China, and provide reference for the staffing of Chinese medicine hospitals. Methods: Based on the statistics of Chinese medicine from 2002 to 2017 on the number of employees in Chinese medicine hospitals nationwide, three models including regression, ARIMA and exponential smoothing were discussed, and the intraclass correlation co-efficient (ICC) with the largest value was selected as the final optimal model. Result: The final optimal prediction model is expressed as: ARIMA (0, 2, 2). R~2 is 0.990, and the two-way mixed effect model between the predicted value and the observed value has an absolute uniform ICC value of 0.997. Conclusion: The model data has a good fitting degree with the actual data. The selected prediction model is feasible for the prediction of the personnel of the national TCM hospitals in China, and it is of great significance for the staffing reference.