WAR GAMES, SIMULATION AND CI TOOLS FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING

摘要

The presentation is devoted to modeling and simulation techniques as well as computational intelligence techniques to support strategic planning in order to control international conflicts. Talcing part in some "tabletop" games, a set of methods and tools to analyze possible moves to resolve a hypothetical conflict along a front line can be proposed. Both the model and some experimental results are presented in the paper. The general approach to war games analysis is described starting from formal model as specific theoretical game up to war game IT framework. Decision support was proposed as a set of statistical, optimization, simulation and artificial intelligence tools for conflict scenario preparation and analysis. The range of quantitative methods and the choice of appropriate research tools in the experiments will be presented. The paper is focused on the analysis possible progress of conflict (escalation of conflict and combat phase). To support the decision of the Friendly Force Commander, several M&S and AI techniques are proposed to evaluate the movements in the game. Simulation of selected incidents: evaluation of effectiveness measures on our side (evaluation of force potential and structure required, simulation analysis of combat clashes).