Alternative Approach to Quantitative Estimation of the SWOT Analysis Solutions

摘要

The methodology of SWOT analysis involves the identification of internal strong and weak properties of the system under study, as well as external opportunities and threats for its functioning. Due to the apparent ease of mastering the SWOT analysis methodology, a large number of articles on the application of SWOT analysis to various practical situations has appeared. However, the conclusions and recommendations contained in such articles were given (as a rule) without proper justification of the plausibility (repeatability, nonrandomness) of the results obtained. An alternative approach to the SWOT analysis to ensure the plausibility of its results is proposed. This approach involves the use of a group of experts to assess the SWOT factors and the Delphi procedure with the property of (partial) convergence of expert estimates for rounds of the procedure. The sufficient conditions for the existence some possible states and their resistance to disturbances in the explored system are formulated in the form of first-order logic formulas. The possibilities of practical applications of the proposed approach are discussed.