Peculiarities of interest rates as forecasting indicator in Russian economy

摘要

The article studies the dynamics of different macroeconomic indicators from the point of view of their forecasting ability in the Russian economy in the period of 2012-2016. The article considers the changes in such macro-indicators as benchmark interest rates, the curve of zero-coupon yield, government stock rates spread and inflation-adjusted money supply. In so doing, the article compares these indicators with their American analogues. The main point was to study the way the indicators were changing, the accuracy of their reflecting the economic situation and whether they should be applied to the Russian economy on the basis of foreign experience (for example, the "Index of Leading Indicators" published by the Conference Board). This issue has been in the focus of Russian and foreign authors as they try to construct the system of economic forecasting. The revealing of these forecasting instruments is a difficult process allowing for the significant number of various indicators and differing market conditions. As a result of the study, the authors uncovered that some of the proposed indicators reflect basic changes in economy as well they have significant forecasting abilities and can be 1-2 quarters ahead of the general situation on the market.