Pest adaptation response planning: a practical application of species distribution science in forecasting strategic planning for weed managers

摘要

Weed management planning generally occurs within a contemporary or near-future timeframe. It identifies current issues and emerging risks, and responds by assigning some measure of priority to guide on-ground management tactics. This approach facilitates the practical implementation of the most effective strategies at hand, as well as providing a degree of capacity to respond to new outbreaks as they occur.Future uncertainties in weed distribution are fuelled by forecast transitions in climate, anticipated increase in human population and the consolidation of species we are already actively managing. As a consequence future management scenarios will need to respond to the introduction of new species from multiple sources as well as the expansion and contraction in currently established species. In this paper we demonstrate an avenue for practical application of forecasting and responding to future weed distributions of species we are currently managing in a Pest Adaptation Response Strategy (PARS).