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Interactive dynamic response between urbanization and energy intensity of Jiangsu Province

机译:江苏省城市化与能源强度的互动动态响应

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This paper, based on statistics of Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2010, has established the Vector Auto-Regression model between urbanization rate and energy intensity. We analyze the relationship of inactive dynamic response of the two variables by using Granger causality test, impulse response function and dynamic variance decomposition analysis, therefore, revealing the inherent interaction mechanisms and trends between the level of urbanization and energy efficiency. The results show that the level of urbanization is not the Granger causality to energy consumption intensity, but energy consumption intensity is the Granger causality to the level of urbanization for Jiangsu Province; the dynamic response between the two variables is negative showing a reverse movement trend, compared with the urbanization rate, the impulse response curve of energy intensity fluctuates violently, indicating that improving energy efficiency cannot rely solely on the self-adjusting energy system. Variance decomposition of timing values shows the cumulative contribution of energy intensity to changes in the urbanization rate and the effect degree of the urbanization rate to energy consumption intensity indicates a stationary convergence growth situation. Thus, we advise to build a new city energy utilization system and constantly promote the decrease in the intensity of energy and the comprehensive benefit of energy utilization to achieve a balance between energy consumption and economic growth.
机译:本文以江苏省统计到2010年为基础,已建立了城市化率和能源强度之间的传染媒介自回归模型。我们通过使用Granger因果试验,脉冲响应函数和动态方差分解分析来分析两个变量的无活性动态响应关系,因此揭示了城市化和能效水平之间固有的相互作用机制和趋势。结果表明,城市化水平并不是能源消耗强度的格兰杰因果关系,但能源消耗强度是江苏省城市化水平的格兰杰因果关系;两个变量之间的动态响应是否定的逆转运动趋势,与城市化速率相比,能量强度的脉冲响应曲线剧烈波动,表明能量效率提高不能仅仅依赖于自调节能量系统。定时值的方差分解显示了能量强度对城市化率变化的累积贡献,城市化率与能量消耗强度的影响程度表明了静止的会聚增长情况。因此,我们建议建立一个新的城市能源利用制度,并不断促进能源强度的减少和能源利用的综合效益,以实现能源消耗和经济增长之间的平衡。

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