Energy Consumption from Conventional Gasoline Sedans in Beijing Based on the LEAP Model

摘要

To improve the urban air quality, Beijing adopted the most stringent vehicle control policies and strategies, including limitations on vehicle growth, the scrappage of older vehicles, and tail number limit line measure. This paper analyzes energy consumption of conventional gasoline sedans in Beijing until 2020 by applying LEAP model, considering the influence of vehicle age on fuel consumption rate, vehicle use intensity and vehicle survival rate. Our results show that conventional gasoline sedans stock in Beijing will reach 3.09 million and energy consumption will reach 3.61 million tons of oil equivalent by 2020 in business as usual scenario, increased by 7.8% and 8.6% compared to 2011 level, respectively. While in fuel consumption rate improved scenario and tail number limit line scenario, energy consumption will decrease compared to 2011 level. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore influence degree of vehicle use intensity and fuel consumption rate under the same change rate.