Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model

摘要

With increasing pressure on resources and environment, sustainable development is becoming more and more important. As the largest energy consumer in the world, China needs to take measures to achieve energy transformation more urgently both from supply and demand side, which is of great significance for sustainable development and achieving carbon emissions target. In recent years, the capital city Beijing has also made great efforts to promote the replacement of electric energy in residential heating, manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption. In order to explore driving forces of total power consumption in Beijing`s final demand sectors, this paper decomposes the factors into industrial electricity substitution effect, industrial energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, economic scale effect, population structure effect, residential electricity substitution effect, residential energy intensity effect and population size effect based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. The decomposition results show that the industrial electricity substitution effect made the largest contribution to increase power consumption in Beijing's final energy consumption sector, followed by economic scale effect, residential energy intensity effect, population scale effect and residential electricity substitution effect, and other`s effect does the opposite. Finally, seven different scenarios are set up to forecast the future power consumption of Beijing`s final sectors based on the long-term energy alternative planning model (LEAP), which reveals the impact of energy efficiency improvement and electricity substitution polices on electricity consumption in Beijing`s final energy consumption sectors.