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Urban Ecosystem Health Assessment of Foshan city based on Entropy and Grey Prediction Model

机译:基于熵和灰色预测模型的佛山市城市生态系统健康评估

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According to the connotation of urban ecosystem health and the ecosystem situation in Foshan, the health assessment index system was constructed which including five factors of vigor, organization, resilience, ecosystem service, population health and the assessment standard was also determined. The index weight was determined by entropy value method. Fuzzy mathematical evaluation method was applied to Foshan urban ecosystem health assessment from 2003 to 2012. Grey predicting model GM (1, 1) was established to analyze dynamic of ecosystem health in future. The results showed that urban ecosystem health developed from sick status to unhealthy status and healthy status in Foshan during 2003-2012. Vigor and organization were two factors advantageous to urban ecosystem health. Ecosystem service had been improved a lot. Resilience and population health were the two main stressful factors of urban ecosystem health. On the whole, Foshan urban ecosystem health showed an improving trend year by year. The status of ecosystem health had much to be improved through proper measures to alleviate or eliminate the stress factors. The GM (1, 1) model had good performance on model fitting and forecasting. It showed the city would maintain a good development in the next five years.
机译:根据城市生态系统健康的内涵和佛山的生态系统局面,建设了健康评估指标制度,包括五个活力,组织,恢复力,生态系统服务,人口健康和评估标准的五个因素。指数重量由熵值方法确定。模糊数学评价方法于2003年至2012年应用于佛山市城市生态系统健康评估。建立灰色预测模型(1,1),以分析未来生态系统健康的动态。结果表明,2003 - 2012年期间,佛山的病境与佛山的不健康地位和健康状况发达的城市生态系统。活力和组织是城市生态系统健康有利的两个因素。生态系统服务已经提高了很多。弹性和人口健康是城市生态系统健康的两个主要压力因素。整体而言,佛山市生态系统健康表现出较大的趋势逐年。通过适当的措施来缓解或消除压力因素,生态系统健康状况的现状得到了很大改善。 GM(1,1)模型对模型拟合和预测具有良好的性能。它显示该市将在未来五年内保持良好的发展。

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