Grey - mutation Model of Residual Error Correction is Applied to the Landslide time Prediction Research

摘要

Landslide danger of early warning is to avoid a major means of state personnel and economic losses. In this paper, in order to effectively predict Baishuihe landslide danger instability, combine with the specific engineering practice, the first application of grey theory of landslide displacement data processing, get the forecast data, and calculate the data of landslide displacement and landslide prediction residual value of the data, according to the theory of system engineering science and nonlinear science grey - cusp mutation theory, the landslide prediction and residual value is used to detect the mutation respectively, earning their forecasts, to amend the residual prediction data for landslide time value of the mutation happened. By comparing with the test data of Baishuihe landslide. By comparing with the test data of Baishuihe landslide, the residual prediction correction forecast results than those not worth to more accurately predict time shows that the model can be more effective to predict landslide displacement mutation time.