Dynamic analysis of China's carbon intensity: empirical findings from 1978 to 2010

摘要

Based on the IPCC guidelines and energy consumptions from 1978 to 2010, China's energy-related carbon intensities have been calculated. Adopting Vector Error-Correction Model preceded by Johansen's cointegration tests, this study has analyzed the long-run equilibrium and short-run fluctuation among China's carbon intensity and the proportion of coal as well as per capita GDP. It found out that China's carbon intensity has shown a downward trend with the increase of per capita GDP but is positively correlated with the proportion of coal in energy structure. The empirical results indicate that the healthy development of economy and optimization of energy structure can decrease China's carbon intensity.