Modelling the energy future of Switzerland after the phase out of nuclear power plants

摘要

This paper evaluates the feasibility of future electricity scenarios drawn in the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050. These scenarios are characterized by a nuclear phase-out and high shares of renewables. We use Calliope, a linear programming model, special to model transition to renewables. Results show that it will be impossible to cover future demand only with domestic production, even if Switzerland reduces the consumption as envisaged. The daily profile of solar and limited capacity of wind lead to scenarios with maximum generation during peak hours. Moreover, we find a need to rearrange generation by flexible technologies to cover future demand.