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Feature analysis and prediction of ice regime in the source region of the Yellow River

机译:黄河源区冰制度的特征分析与预测

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The Yellow River is a river where serious ice disasters frequently take place in winter. In recent years, the stable frozen period has decreased and the frequency of intermittent freeze periods has increased. After analysing the main factors influencing the ice regime, the prediction factors can be selected. Using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods, this paper sets up two models for the freeze-up and break-up date prediction. In the MLR model, stepwise regression analysis is used to select the highly-related factors into the prediction equation. In the ANN model, a multilayer preceptor in SPSS, a statistical analysis software named Statistical Product and Service Solutions, is used to set up topology between input factors and output date. In conclusion, a comparison is made between the results of the two different methods. The ANN model performs better than the MLR model.
机译:黄河是一条严重的冰灾害经常在冬天发生的河流。近年来,稳定的冻结期已经减少,间歇冻结期的频率增加了。在分析影响冰制度的主要因素之后,可以选择预测因素。使用多元线性回归(MLR)和人工神经网络(ANN)方法,本文为冻结和分解日期预测建立了两种模型。在MLR模型中,逐步回归分析用于选择高度相关的因素进入预测方程。在ANN模型中,SPSS中的多层备用传递器,统计分析软件命名为统计产品和服务解决方案,用于在输入因子和输出日之间设置拓扑。总之,在两种不同方法的结果之间进行比较。 ANN模型比MLR模型更好。

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