The Mobile Holiday Seasonal Adjustment Model Research Based On the Stock Data

摘要

Based on the shortcomings of seasonal adjustment methods of stock data, the paper takes stock data-money supply (M0) as the main research object, and designs the operation and programmed process that the explanatory variables of stock data are generated, and set up money supply (M0) model of the registration day being in at the end of the month and three zones. the money supply (M0) seasonal adjustment result shows the Q statistics of the seasonal adjustment quality is 0.19, the outliers ratio is 2.9%, all the outliers appear in January and February, which shows the money supply (M0) mainly was affected by the mobile holiday - the Spring Festival in the middle of season factors, and is very small impacted by the holiday such as the Dragon Boat Festival, May Day, emergency and the financial policy, the growth trends of month and month and year and year are almost synchronization. The paper forecasts the money supply (M0) in 2012 using the model, the average relative error of the forecast values is 2.87%, which belongs to the secondary level accuracy, and is suitable for forecast of medium and long-term.