Schedule and Cost Forecasting Model for Nuclear Power Plant Projects

摘要

Accuracy in schedule and cost estimations for nuclear power plant projects is one of the major project management challenges. Some characteristics of nuclear power plant projects (e.g., variability of projects portfolio, type of nuclear projects, security, and safety requirements) may bring along schedule delay and cost overrun, and that can be resulted in termination of nuclear power plant's operating license. To overcome these challenges, this study develops a model that is capable of improving the accuracy of cost and schedule estimation for nuclear power plant projects. The forecasting model is designed in three steps: (ⅰ) identifying the causal factors of delay for nuclear power plant projects; (2) developing a schedule and cost performance model; and (3) implementing the model to evaluate and refine its performance on real-case nuclear power plant projects. This study mainly focuses on construction projects to maintain and upgrade existing nuclear power plants. The model is also validated by project management portfolio of a nuclear power plant in Michigan, USA. The main contribution of this study to the body of knowledge is providing construction industry decision makers (e.g., nuclear power plant project managers) with a tool that can provide early warnings to support timely decision making process.