Analysis of foreign models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy and their application in Russian practice on the example of the public joint-stock company AVTOVAZ for the 2014-2016

摘要

There is an unstable economic growth in recent years, as well as unstable macroeconomic situation in general, so managers need to analyze not only the current financial condition of the enterprise, but also constantly to diagnose the probability of bankruptcy in the future. The paper carries out the analysis of foreign models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy, as well as Altaian Z-Score and Altman-Sabato model which is based on logistic regression. Main attention is paid to application of models in Russian practice on the example of the public joint-stock company AVTOVAZ for the 2014-2016 years.