Methodological Foundations of Fuzzy-Multiple Assessment of the State of Economic Systems Based on Aggregation of Indicators

摘要

We presented a general model for a comprehensive assessment of the state of economic systems based on aggregation of a hierarchy of heterogeneous indicators.The model is based on the use of systems of fuzzy-logical conclusions - standard fuzzy multi-level [0, 1] - classifiers previously used in the economy to assess the risk of bankruptcy of a company.The result of the application of the method is a "balance sheet of estimates", in which normalized values of indicators are summarized.Linguistic recognition of the final comprehensive assessment makes it possible to evaluate the dynamics of the system not only quantitatively (the numerical value of the corresponding fuzzy variable), but also qualitatively ("how bad" or "how good").Analysis of the estimates of indicators allows us to identify those that lead to a decrease in the value of a comprehensive assessment; therefore, to determine in which areas work should be done to improve the situation.The information obtained can serve as the basis for a targeted analysis of production in detail, as well as for making management decisions.The technique is concretized for the case of a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of economic activity, which occupies an important place in management analysis.