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Chaos analysis on the Philippine foreign exchange market

机译:菲律宾外汇市场的混乱分析

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Forecasting foreign exchange rate is very essential to the international trade. Foreign investors and traders predict exchange rates to determine the profits and risks of an investment. However, the trends in exchange rate market looks random. A theory on chaos states that although a behavior may seem random, there is an underlying deterministic relationship between dynamical systems. Thus, this research attempts to test for the existence of chaos in the Philippine Foreign Exchange Market using the Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE) Test and 0-1 Test. The results of the Lyapunov Exponent test show that there is a general lack of chaos in the exchange rate series. This is further verified using the 0-1 Test, wherein no values are close to 1. In general, the Philippine foreign exchange market is not chaotic. Hence, the Philippine foreign exchange rates cannot be predicted.
机译:预测外汇汇率对国际贸易至关重要。外国投资者和交易商预测汇率确定投资的利润和风险。然而,汇率市场的趋势看起来随机。关于混乱的理论,虽然行为看起来可能随机,但动态系统之间存在潜在的确定性关系。因此,这项研究试图使用最大的Lyapunov指数(LLE)测试和0-1测试来测试菲律宾外汇市场中混乱的存在。 Lyapunov指数试验结果表明,汇率系列中普遍缺乏混乱。通过0-1测试进一步验证,其中没有值接近1.一般来说,菲律宾外汇市场不是混乱的。因此,无法预测菲律宾外汇汇率。

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