Effects of Nominal Exchange Rates and Domestic Outputs on Imports (Analysis of national food security commodities in ASEAN Countries)

摘要

Most ASEAN countries are producing agricultural commodities in the form of; rice; maize; soybeans; sugar cane (sugar products) and cassava. However to meet domestic needs; almost all ASEAN countries import agricultural commodities. The purpose of the research is to analyze; effects of nominal exchange rates and domestic output on imports of agricultural commodities; rice; maize; soybeans; cassava and sugar in ASEAN countries. This study uses panel data of 9 ASEAN countries from 2012 to 2018. The analysis method uses panel analysis of Common Effect Model log (CEM log), Fixed Effect Model log (FEM log) and Random Effect Model log (REM log). The analysis found that the exchange rate had a positive and significant effect on the import of rice; sugar; maize; soybean and cassava in ASEAN countries. Domestic output has a positive and significant effect on imports of maize; soybean and cassava commodities and does not have a significant effect on imports of rice and sugar commodities in ASEAN countries.