Regression-matrix Model and Its Application in Socio-economic Foresight

摘要

This paper proposes a regression-matrix model for predicting the socio-economic development of regional systems. The ability to build up such a model provides for the classification of indicators into groups depending on their socio-economic purpose. The structured data presentation has led to the pre-requisite for a graded construction of models that ensure a proactive balance of the dynamics at two levels: cluster-type and system-based. According to the assumption, group balance should ensure the consistency of the expected growth of each indicator with the group dynamics of the corresponding block. The systemic balance is provided by the introduction of group dynamics indicators in the form of principal components, in turn, the regression-matrix approach is applied.