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Predicting residential electricity consumption using neural networks: A case study

机译:使用神经网络预测住宅用电量:案例研究

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Electricity demand prediction plays an essential role in short-term load allocation and long-term planning for new generation and transmission infrastructures. An accurate prediction also allows to take better decisions in terms of cost and energy efficiency. In this aspect, this paper proposes a model for predicting the electricity consumption of residential area in Seoul using neural network. This work has analyzed several particular characteristics of the aforementioned city to extract variables that could have direct influence in the electricity consumption pattern. Using the extracted variables, this paper could forecast the residential electricity consumption with an average error rate of 2.0375% and it could demonstrate how the elderly population is the parameter that influences with major weight at the moment of forecasting residential electricity consumption. Additionally, the presented work illustrates how executing the supervised learning process using a data set organized by months of the year can reduce considerably the error rate. Furthermore, the analysis or results delivers interesting findings related to the energy consumption in Seoul.
机译:电力需求预测在短期载荷分配和新一代传输基础设施的长期规划中起着重要作用。准确的预测还允许在成本和能效方面采取更好的决定。在这方面,本文提出了一种使用神经网络预测首尔住宅区的电力消耗的模型。这项工作分析了上述城市的几个特殊特征,以提取可能对电力消费模式有直接影响的变量。使用提取的变量,本文可以预测住宅用电量,平均误差率为2.0375%,它可以证明老年人人口如何在预测住宅用电量时影响重量的参数。此外,所呈现的工作说明了如何使用一年中的数月组织的数据集执行监督学习过程可以减少误差率。此外,分析或结果提供与首尔能源消耗有关的有趣调查结果。

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