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Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity

机译:德国地区的人口老化和就业动态:建模区域异质性

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Demographic aging is a significant concern for many developed countries. In order to correctly address the associated problems, it is crucial to properly identify the needs of the labour markets. In this paper we focus on the impact of youth on regional employment rates in 141 German labour market areas. We show that fixed effects models with varying β coefficients are not adequate to reflect and handle the heterogeneity. By employing an innovative methodology that is combining a latent class analysis with self-organising maps, this research depicts a great deal of variation of how ageing impacts employment opportunities of the working age population at the regional level. Although our OLS and IV estimations are in line with previous research on German local labour markets (e.g., with Garloff et al. (2013))-although contradicts with the work of Shimer (2001), we offer further explanations for a number of issues not yet addressed in the literature.
机译:人口老龄化对许多发达国家来说是一个重要的问题。为了正确解决相关问题,妥善了解劳动力市场的需求至关重要。在本文中,我们专注于青年对141名德国劳动力市场区域的区域就业率的影响。我们表明,具有不同β系数的固定效果模型不足以反映和处理异质性。通过采用与自组织地图相结合的创新方法,这项研究描述了老化在区域一级对工作年龄群的就业机会产生了衰老的大量变化。虽然我们的OLS和IV估计符合以前关于德国当地劳动力市场的研究(例如,Garloff等人) - 尽管与Shimer工作(2001)的工作相矛盾,但我们为许多问题提供了进一步的解释在文献中尚未解决。

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