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Policy impact of the Indonesian Central Bank certificate related on loan interest rate to the demand growth of property

机译:印度尼西亚中央银行证书对财产需求增长的贷款利率有关的政策影响

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The Indonesian economic indicators shown a positive progress in the last three years, Foreign exchange reserves position of the end of March 2017 stood at US $ 121.8 billion higher than the position of the end of 2015 amounted to US $ 105.9 billion of the end of 2015. This reserve would ensure the resilience and maintaining sustainable Indonesian economic growth in the future. Although Indonesia's foreign exchange is better, the structure of expenditure in the country is still less than ideal due the proportion of spending of consumer goods is far greater than the capital goods and tend to be unproductive spending. This needs to be regulated so that in the long term does not cause balance of payments deficit. Therefore, Indonesian Central Bank took a policy to raise interest rates for retail banks from 6% to 7.25% per annum gradually up to present. Policies relating to the interest rates on loans are intended to reduce the proportion of debt financing of consumer goods, however, these policies have implications to various economic sectors and one of those is property sector. A lot of research has been conducted related the impact of loan interest to the property sector but most of it is still in partial related to the ability the people to buy. However, this research has tried to see the implication of the macro Economic Policy of Indonesian Central Bank to the property sector as a systemic problem. This paper is going to present the study on the effects of these policies on the property sector, especially residence house. To obtain a comprehensive analysis and capture the relationship between interest rate policies and their impacts to the property sector, in this study the model developed and simulated using system dynamic methodology as an approach. Various scenarios are applied to the model to get an accurate information about how and when the effectiveness of the policy related to the property sector can be enforced. The result of this study can be delivered to the policy maker as feed-back to improving the policies related the interest rate.
机译:印度尼西亚经济指标在过去三年中出现了积极进展,2017年3月底的外汇储备达到2015年底末期的121.8亿美元,达到2015年底的1059亿美元。该储备将确保恢复力和维持未来可持续的印尼经济增长。虽然印度尼西亚的外汇更好,但该国支出的结构仍然不如理想的,消费品支出的比例远远大于资本货物,往往是不生产的支出。这需要受到监管,以便长期不会导致支付赤字的余额。因此,印度尼西亚央行采取政策,将零售银行的利率从6%逐步提高6%至7.25%。与贷款利率有关的政策旨在减少消费品的债务融资比例,但这些政策对各种经济部门产生了影响,其中一个是物业部门。已经进行了许多研究与贷款利息对物业部门的影响有关,但大多数情况仍然与人民购买的能力有关。然而,这项研究试图将印度尼西亚央行宏观经济政策视为物业部门作为一个系统问题的含义。本文将展示这些政策对物业部门的影响的研究,尤其是居住屋。为了获得全面的分析并捕捉利率政策与其对物业部门的影响之间的关系,在本研究中,使用系统动态方法作为一种方法来开发和模拟模型。应用于模型的各种场景,以获得有关如何以及何时能够强制执行与属性扇区相关的策略的有效性的准确信息。本研究的结果可以向政策制定者交付,作为提高政策,以改善相关的利率。

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