The Influence of Tail Fitting of Truck Effect Samples on Maximum Truck Effect in Reference Period

摘要

In order to study the influence of the tail of the fitted sample distribution curve of vehicle load effect on the maximum value distribution in the reference period of vehicle load effect, multi-model normal distribution curve, straight line, parabola, exponential curve and POT model based on Pareto distribution are used respectively to fit the distribution curve of vehicle load effect sample, and the maximum distribution of different reference periods is calculated by using extreme value theory. The results show that the multi-model normal distribution model cannot accurately simulate the tail of the sample frequency curve of vehicle load effect, which can cause greater error in the extrapolation of the extreme value of the vehicle load effect, because the key is to fit exactly the tail of the sample probability distribution curve, and the tail trend of sample probability distribution curve will determine the extrapolation result of the extreme value of vehicle load effect.