Identification, Evaluation and Control of Risks at the Middle Stage of the MA by Baoneng Clique - AHP-AGA based Improved Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

摘要

At present, the battle for equity ownership between Baoneng Clique and Vanke Clique has become a point at issue among scholars and media. This paper first identified the risks possibly arising at the middle stage of the M&A by Baoneng Clique, and built a four-layer risk index system. It then improved the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on analytic hierarchy process-accelerating genetic algorithm (AHP-AGA); figured out the weight coefficient of the risks in each layer in accordance with expert estimation, and conducted a consistency test on it; carried out three-grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and weighted average calculation by weight coefficient vector and membership matrix, rating the overall risk level. The research shows that overall, there are high-level risks at the middle stage of the M&A by Baoneng Clique, and specifically, payment timing risk, financing pattern selection risk, competition risk and public opinion risk are decisive. Baoneng Clique should pay more attention to these risks. Finally, this paper took control of the above higher-level risks, in hope to warn Baoneng Clique of the risks and give it advice on risk management.