Forecast of Tourism Growth in Huangshan City-A Study Based on Grey Model

摘要

Tourism has become an important pillar industry and an advantageous industry of "rich people and strong cities" in the economy of Huangshan City. This paper applies grey model to respectively calculate the correlation between the comprehensive tourism income of Huangshan City and Huangshan City's regional GDP, financial income, fixed assets investment, per capita net income of farmers, total agriculture output value, total forestry output value, number of visitors throughout the year, and retail sales of social consumer goods. This paper uses the Grey Prediction Model (GM Model) to predict the comprehensive tourism income of Huangshan City. The results show that the comprehensive income of tourism inHuangshan city is highly correlated with the above factors, among which the highest is that the correlation degree of the number of tourist on comprehensive tourism income is 0.8520. It also predicts Huangshan city tourism comprehensive income in 2020 and in 2050 reached 69.5 billion yuan, 1.6864 trillion yuan respectively.