Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Nigeria: The Extent of Future Devastating Earthquake

摘要

The several past seismic occurrences in Nigeria has recently led to warnings from research agencies and the forecast of large earthquake from researchers in Nigeria. Nevertheless, the major forecast from researchers has appeared to be open ended. To this end, this paper aimed at the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Nigeria and the limit to probable future earthquake magnitudes in Nigeria. The Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law was majorly employed for the purpose of this research. The Findings of this research established that Nigeria is at the risk of experiencing earthquake magnitudes as high 6.0 in the year 2020; 6.5 between the year 2021 and 2022; 7.0 between the year 2025 and 2026 and 7.1 in the year 2028 with a 36.79% probability. The probability that an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 will be experienced from 2019 to 2028 also ranges from 9% to 36.79%. The findings of this work inform on the sizes of probable future earthquake magnitude and it is recommended that the government of Nigeria pays rapt attention to earthquakes in Nigeria.