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Evaluating the economic damages of transport disruptions using a transnational and interregional input-output model for Japan, China, and South Korea

机译:利用日本,中国和韩国跨国和区域间投入产出模型评估运输中断的经济损害

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Damage to transportation networks as a result of natural disasters can lead to economic losses due to lost trade along those links in addition to the costs of damage to the infrastructure itself. This study evaluates the economic damages of transport disruptions such as highways, tunnels, bridges, and ports using a transnational and interregional Input-Output Model that divides the world into 23 regions: 9 regions in Japan, 7 regions in China, and 4 regions in Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN5, and the USA to allow us to focus on Japan's regional and international links. In our simulation, economic ripple effects of both international and interregional transport disruptions are measured by changes in the trade coefficients in the input-output model. The simulation showed that, in the case of regional links in Japan, a transport disruption in the Kanmon Straits causes the most damage to our targeted world, resulting in economic damage of approximately $36.3 billion. In the case of international links among Japan, China, and Korea, damage to the link between Kanto in Japan and Huabei in China causes economic losses of approximately $31.1 billion. Our result highlights the importance of disaster prevention in the Kanmon Straits, Kanto, and Huabei to help ensure economic resilience.
机译:由于自然灾害导致运输网络损坏可能导致由于基础设施本身损坏的成本,由于沿着这些联系的贸易损失导致经济损失。本研究评估了使用跨国和区域间投入产出模型等运输中断的经济损害,例如使用跨国和区域间投入输出模型将世界分成23个地区:日本的9个地区,中国7个地区和4个地区韩国,台湾,东盟和美国允许我们专注于日本的区域和国际联系。在我们的模拟中,通过输入 - 输出模型中的贸易系数的变化来衡量国际和区域间运输中断的经济涟漪效应。该模拟表明,在日本的区域环节的情况下,Kanmon Straits的运输中断导致我们针对世界的最大损害,导致经济损失约为363亿美元。在日本,中国和韩国之间的国际联系的情况下,日本卡托之间的联系损失和中国淮北的武器会导致经济损失约为311亿美元。我们的结果突显了禁止禁止灾害,卡托和淮北灾害的重要性,以帮助确保经济恢复力。

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