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Hidden Markov Model and Forward-Backward Algorithm in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

机译:原油价格预测中隐马尔可夫模型及前后算法

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In light of the importance of crude oil to the world's economy, it is not surprising that economists have devoted great efforts towards developing methods to forecast price and volatility levels. Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile such as economic, political and social. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid unforeseen circumstances towards economic activity. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2~(nd) January to 29~(th) May 2015. We used Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Forward-Backward Algorithm to forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using Maple software. Based on the study, we concluded that model (0 3 0) is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.
机译:鉴于原油对世界经济的重要性,经济学家们致力于开发预测价格和波动水平的方法并不令人惊讶。原油是人类的重要能源商品。有几个原因使原油价格成为挥发性,如经济,政治和社会。因此,预测原油价格对于避免不可预见的情况至关重要。在这项研究中,日常原油价格是从2015年1月至29〜(Th)的WTI日期为2〜(ND)。我们使用了隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)和前后算法预测原油价格。在这项研究中,使用枫木软件进行分析。基于该研究,我们得出结论,模型(0 3 0)能够基于原油价格的历史模式的描述来产生准确的预测。

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