Ways to Improve the Ensemble Smoothing Method,Taking Into Account the Specifics of the Oil and Gas Fields Production Prediction

摘要

Last years,the methods for prediction of probabilistic distributions of oil and gas reservoir development characteristics are actively researched.It is important for solving of risk management tasks.The key problem here is the need to perform the history matching for a large numbers of flow models.The Ensemble Smoothing method is the one of promising approaches to solving this issue.However,sometimes its results are not good enough for real practical cases.In this article the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of Ensemble Smoother method is made and the ways of method improvement are proposed.