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A Hybrid Predictive Model for Acoustic Noise in Urban Areas Based on Time Series Analysis and Artificial Neural Network

机译:基于时间序列分析和人工神经网络的城市地区声噪声混合预测模型

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The dangerous effect of noise on human health is well known. Both the auditory and non-auditory effects are largely documented in literature, and represent an important hazard in human activities. Particular care is devoted to road traffic noise, since it is growing according to the growth of residential, industrial and commercial areas. For these reasons, it is important to develop effective models able to predict the noise in a certain area. In this paper, a hybrid predictive model is presented. The model is based on the mixing of two different approach: the Time Series Analysis (TSA) and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The TSA model is based on the evaluation of trend and seasonality in the data, while the ANN model is based on the capacity of the network to "leam" the behavior of the data. The mixed approach will consist in the evaluation of noise levels by means of TSA and, once the differences (residuals) between TSA estimations and observed data have been calculated, in the training of a ANN on the residuals. This hybrid model will exploit interesting features and results, with a significant variation related to the number of steps forward in the prediction. It will be shown that the best results, in terms of prediction, are achieved predicting one step ahead in the future. Anyway, a 7 days prediction can be performed, with a slightly greater error, but offering a larger range of prediction, with respect to the single day ahead predictive model.
机译:噪音对人类健康的危险效果是众所周知的。听觉和非听觉效应都在很大程度上记录在文献中,并代表了人类活动的重要危害。特别小心致力于道路交通噪音,因为它根据住宅,工业和商业区的增长而发展。由于这些原因,开发能够预测某个区域中的噪声的有效模型非常重要。本文提出了一种混合预测模型。该模型基于两种不同方法的混合:时间序列分析(TSA)和人工神经网络(ANN)。 TSA模型基于数据的趋势和季节性评估,而ANN模型基于网络的能力,基于网络“LEAM”数据的行为。混合方法将通过TSA评估噪声水平,并且一​​旦TSA估计和观察数据之间的差异(残留)已经计算出来,在培训残留的ANN中。该混合模型将利用有趣的特征和结果,其与预测中前一步数相关的显着变化。将表明,在预测方面,实现了最佳结果,以预测未来的一个步骤。无论如何,可以进行7天预测,误差略大,但是关于一天前一天预测模型提供更大的预测范围。

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