Benchmark PV Generation Costs in Asia

摘要

Since the beginning of this decade, solar PV technology has been one of the most disruptive forms of power generation globally, including within Asia. Particularly in Asia, due to the abundance of solar resource and land in many areas, solar PV market has enjoyed significant growth during the past decade with China, Japan, India, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia among the leading markets in this region. In addition, founded on the previous success of these regional markets, other promising PV markets such as Myanmar, Indonesia, and Vietnam are now also starting to pick up pace. Supported by such significant growth in the solar PV market during the last 10 years, CAPEX of solar PV technology has reduced by up to 50%, driven primarily by a competitive global equipment supply market. Consequently, the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) for solar PV has also dropped significantly. In parallel, public pressure to reduce the costs of renewable energy mean we expect a consistent reduction of incentives until power sales tariffs reach grid parity or below. The objective of this study is to provide a representative LCOE of the Asia market based on the up-to-date distinctive characteristics of each market (such as variations in irradiation and CAPEX and OPEX), and to analyse how well this matches with national-level plans the future solar sector investment. The key markets in Asia examined in this study include Cambodia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The analysis results show that the LCOE for the selected countries in Asia varies in the range of 0.070 – 0.218 USD/kWh at 10% discount rate and decreases to the range of 0.049 – 0.163 USD/kWh at 5% discount rate. It is seen that lowest LCOE is achievable in markets with low labour costs and high solar irradiation such as India, whereas highest LCOE is observed in markets with high labour costs and low irradiation such as Japan or Taiwan. Moreover, the current FiT scheme in Thailand is considered one of the most attractive investment choice due to the expected higher return with India and Taiwan following behind. On the other hand, the project feasibility in Malaysia, Vietnam, and Japan is highly dependent on the appetite of return of the interested investor or developer. In addition, the sensitivity analysis for Upside and Downside scenarios for more and less favourable conditions by varying the CAPEX/OPEX, plant performance and irradiation assumptions. This paper shows that opportunities exist in all the markets considered, although with a need to drive reductions in project costs from current levels to deliver attractive returns in lower tariff markets.